The
Welfare State and Ideological Hubris
Europe’s
self-destruction: welfare, immigration, and defense capabilities in a declining
continent.
Lars Møller |
February 3, 2026 www.americanthinker.com
Rising
from the ashes of WWII, a secularized, progressive Europe embarked on a grand
experiment in social engineering, constructing an elaborate welfare state that
promised security from cradle to grave. Yet this utopianist Tower of Babel—once
hailed as a triumph of humanistic progress—now appears less a monument to
compassion than to self-sabotage.
Through
a combination of fiscal irresponsibility, demographic complacency, and
strategic naïveté, Europeans are digging their own grave. Lavish social safety
nets have created dependency rather than productivity, while unchecked
immigration has eroded cultural foundations rooted in Christian-humanist
traditions. Abdicating responsibility for its own territorial integrity, Europe
relies on American military protection, a dependency increasingly strained by
transatlantic tensions. These intertwined pathologies—welfare excess,
demographic upheaval, and defense neglect—signal an inexorable decline, leaving
Europe vulnerable to internal dissolution and external predation. Far from a
beacon of enlightenment, the continent risks becoming a cautionary tale of how
prosperity breeds paralysis.
The
welfare state, an Earthly Eden, has morphed into a bureaucratic colossus that
stifles economic vitality and entrenches entitlement. Since 1945, European
nations have expanded social protections to include universal healthcare,
generous unemployment benefits, and extensive pension systems. By 2025, social
protection expenditures accounted for nearly 40% of public spending across the
EU, totaling approximately €3.3 trillion—almost 20% of the EU’s GDP.
This
expansive framework enables significant portions of the population to opt out
of productive labor, claiming disability and invoking rights to lifelong support.
In France, public debt surged to €3.35 trillion by 2025—114% of GDP—while
pension shortfalls ballooned to €23 billion annually. Italy and Greece fare no
better, with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 137% and 152%, respectively, far
surpassing the EU’s 60% guideline. These figures reflect not only fiscal
mismanagement but also a deeper malaise: a system that disincentivizes work,
innovation, and risk-taking.
Intentions
notwithstanding, welfare generosity has fostered a culture of dependency where
able-bodied citizens evade social contribution. In Germany, a popular demand
for welfare reforms is kept alive by right-wing suspicions that social spending
exacerbates inequality and economic stagnation. Yet the UN’s Special Rapporteur
on extreme poverty has warned that welfare retrenchment itself fuels popular
discontent, implying that both expansion and contraction can generate political
extremism—a paradox that captures Europe’s broader policy paralysis.
The
welfare model is under increasing pressure from demographic aging and global
competition. Older populations require ever-greater resources, while younger
generations confront precarious employment in fragmented labor markets, placing
additional strain on systems designed for an era of stable growth. This vicious
cycle threatens fiscal sustainability: absent radical reform, Europe’s welfare
states risk collapsing under their own weight, pulling the continent towards
economic marginalization.
Compounding
this internal decline is the demographic transformation wrought by mass
immigration, particularly from Muslim-majority countries, which threatens
Western cultural identity. For centuries, Europe served as the last refuge of
Christianity after Islamic conquests extinguished Christian heartlands across
North Africa, the Middle East, and Anatolia. Battles such as Tours in 732 and
Vienna in 1683 preserved this heritage against Arab and Ottoman incursions,
respectively.
In
the twentieth century, however, postwar Europe—scarred by conflict and labor
shortages—opened its borders to millions of migrants in pursuit of economic
recovery and humanitarian ideals. By 2025, the EU’s Muslim population was
estimated at approximately 23–25 million, representing around 5% of the EU’s
roughly 448 million inhabitants. This growth has been driven by higher
fertility rates—Muslims in the EU average roughly one additional child per
woman compared to native Europeans—and sustained migration flows. Between 2010
and 2023, over 2.5 million migrants from the Middle East, North Africa, and
South Asia were granted residence or asylum within the EU.
While
some immigrants integrate successfully and contribute economically, others
strain public services, fueling perceptions of parasitism. In France, Muslims
number between six and seven million (9–10% of the population); in Germany,
five to six million (6–7%); and in other major EU states such as the
Netherlands, Belgium, and Austria, Muslim populations now exceed 7%.
Projections suggest that Muslims could comprise 7-12% of the EU’s population by
2050, depending on migration intensity and fertility convergence. The cultural
shift is increasingly visible: churches stand empty across much of the EU while
mosques proliferate, symbolizing what is appropriately characterized as a
“resumed Islamic conquest by demographic means”. In Germany, approximately 82%
of Muslims identify as religious, compared with roughly 55% of native
Christians.
Europe’s
strategic vulnerabilities magnify these domestic woes. For decades, the EU has
outsourced its security to the US. After WWII, Europeans prioritized prosperity
over preparedness, relying on American taxpayers for conventional forces and
nuclear deterrence throughout the Cold War. By 2025, NATO’s new benchmark
mandated defense and security spending of 5% of GDP by 2035—3.5% for core
military requirements and 1.5% for related expenditures—yet many EU members
only recently met the previous 2% target. In 2024, European NATO members and
Canada contributed 36% of alliance spending, up from 28% in 2015, but still far
from parity. EU defense outlays reached €343 billion in 2024 and are projected
to rise to €381 billion in 2025, marking a 62.9% increase since 2020.
Nevertheless, fragmented procurement and duplicated efforts continue to
undermine efficiency.
This
dependency has bred resentment in Washington, where the EU is increasingly
considered an unreliable partner amid rising threats from Russia and China. At
the 2025 Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance delivered a
blistering critique, arguing that Europe’s gravest threat lies not in external
adversaries but in internal erosion of democratic norms—censorship, suppression
of dissent, and exclusion of populist voices. He condemned EU “commissars” for
threatening to shut down social media during unrest over “hateful content”,
cited German police raids over anti-feminist online speech, and highlighted
Sweden’s conviction of a Christian activist involved in Quran burnings, the
judge having chillingly asserted that freedom of expression does not grant a
“free pass” to offend religious groups.
Vance
also denounced the UK’s prosecution of a military veteran for silently praying
near an abortion clinic, likening such actions to Cold War-era repression that
censored dissidents and shuttered churches. He cited the annulment of Romania’s
election and speech restrictions in Sweden and other EU states, warning that US
support hinges on Europe’s adherence to shared values of liberty, innovation,
and democratic legitimacy. He further tied these failures to mass immigration,
pointing to the recent Munich vehicle-ramming attack by an Afghan immigrant on
trade union demonstrators as a grim symbol of unchecked borders and ignored
voter concerns.
The
speech stunned attendees. European leaders such as Germany’s defense minister,
Boris Pistorius, dismissed it as “not acceptable” inasmuch as it focused on
American frustration with Europe’s moral retreat rather than Russian
aggression—and reinforced a bleak prognosis: a EU increasingly estranged from
its own voters, inviting autocratic exploitation and alliance fracture.
Tensions
have since escalated over the ownership of Greenland. At the height of the
crisis, President Donald Trump’s renewed push for acquisition—accompanied by
threats of tariffs on Denmark and other EU members—raised the specter of trade
war and military escalation. European leaders have denounced these moves as
coercive, warning of potential NATO rupture. Of course, such discord delights
adversaries in Moscow and Beijing, exposing Western disunity.
Grappling
with its own domestic unrest, the U.S. might empathize a little with the EU,
given their shared cultural inheritance. Schadenfreude is not helpful.
Americans can for the most part trace their origins to Europe, fully committed
to Judeo-Christian values and Enlightenment ideals of liberty. Yet, as the EU
falters, ties weaken. When the EU eventually collapses, America may find itself
isolated among ascendant autocratic powers.
Europe’s
trajectory appears one of inexorable decline, determined by welfare-induced
lethargy, demographic subversion, and strategic impotence. The EU’s liberal
elite, shaken by American rebukes yet unwilling to reform, deny the internal
forces eroding its foundations. Without a radical reckoning—curtailing
entitlements, securing borders, and rebuilding defense—Europe risks cultural
obliteration and geopolitical irrelevance. So, are Europeans willing to throw
themselves into the grave?
In
this view, the West’s cradle may yet become its tomb, leaving a solitary
America to defend the flickering light of freedom in a darkening world.
