This post describes an interesting analogy about young people and crime and efforts of law enforcement.

 

Violent crime and demography

When we look at the data and identify the most common perpetrators, what does that mean for us in the context of mass importations of angry young men from violent nations?

Bill Ponton | May 27, 2026 www.americanthinker.com

What drives violent crime in society at large? First, we must establish a measure of violent crime. One reliable measure of violent crime is the homicide rate, simply because a dead body is a great indicator. The next question to ask is who would be most inclined to commit violent crime and murder? The answer seems obvious. It is young men in the prime of their life, ages 15–30. In fact, there exists a strong correlation (R2 = 0.67) between the percentage of a population in the 15–30 age bracket and the homicide rate (see Figure 1).

Figure 1

The percentage of young men in a population seems to be the dominant driving factor, but it does not fully explain the violent crime trend. Another factor is violent crime enforcement. A good measure of that is the number of police per capita. However, I was only able to gather a measure of it back to 1992.  Starting in that year, one sees the number of sworn officers per 100,000 residents rise, level off in the ‘00s and then decline after 2010 only to rebound a bit after 2015 (see Figure 2).

Figure 2

The increase in policing was a result of public outrage to the prior period of violent crime from 1970 -90. It is difficult to determine if the additional policing or the decline in the percentage of the population between age 15–30 was responsible for the precipitous drop in violent crime in the ‘90s. More than likely, it was a combination of the two factors. Additionally noteworthy is the spike in the homicide rate in 2020 attributable to the “defund the police” craze in the wake of George Floyd’s drug overdose death while in police custody.

So, it is only natural to ask, “What happens when our country imports a large number of young men from distant cultures?” Apart from some charming customs that they may impart to our culture, if one accepts my earlier reasoning, they will also bring a spike in violent crime.